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Reduce the need for multiple providers by tapping into our global suite of services. With C. Robinson, you get more lo to choose from than any other 3PL in North America. Day or night, find and book the lanes and the freight you want. Freight market insights and supply chain resources to help drive better outcomes for your business. We solve logistics problems for companies across the globe and across industries, from the simple to the most complex. Our global network of experts acts as an extension of your team, today to learn more how we can help you.
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The following information is built on market data from public sources and C. Use these insights to stay informed, make decisions deed to mitigate your risk, and avoid disruptions to your supply chain. But what about large, unpredictable events, like hurricanes?
NOAA has forecasted another active hurricane season. In fact, forecasters suggest will be a year of higher than normal hurricane activity. Hurricane season in the United States is typically June through November every year. Inhurricanes Harvey and Irma landed back to back and disrupted life and logistics for the southeast United States. Harvey had two landfalls and stalled over the Houston, TX region, dropping unprecedented rain—as high as This caused flooding, shutting down logistics hubs, ro, and supply chains for the fourth largest city in the United States.
Two weeks later, Irma landed in south Florida and moved north up the peninsula with gale-force winds and rain to Georgia, before weakening to a tropical storm. Respectively, the two visuals below show outbound and inbound lo from the Houston area during hurricane Harvey. Both provide an aggregate view of a mile radius and show load volumes and load volume changes as a rolling seven-day average. By day five, pricing starts to Seeking ltr in Houston Texas region as the market works to entice carriers to move freight within the flood area.
As the fourth largest city in the United States, Houston has an impactful freight economy, which can and did disrupt truck flows nationwide. Also, keep in mind that during the peak of the storm, both lo posted and trucks posted in the Houston area fell similar to some national holidaysmaking LTR's appear a bit misleading when compared to non-disruptive periods.
Source: C. Robinson seven-day average load volume and rate data outbound shipments from a mile radius region from Houston, TX. For inbound lo to the Houston area, businesses and carriers curtailed activity and increased CPM three days before Harvey hit Texas. This activity continued upward to day 11 before decreasing. Note the persistent elevation in CPM for inbound lo compared to the rest of the country after Harvey.
Demand into the Houston area was elevated for quite some time beyond what is shown here, first for relief and then for recovery. This imbalance continued to disrupt historical freight flows into the region and contributed to some nationwide disruption of capacity flow.
Robinson seven-day average load volume and rate data inbound shipments from a mile radius region from Houston, TX. When looking at inbound lo to the Houston area, we see that businesses and carriers curtail activity with increases in CPM occurring three days before Harvey made land fall in Texas and continuing upward to day 11 before starting its way down. There was elevated demand into the Houston area for quite some time beyond the time shown herefirst for relief and then for recovery that continued to disrupt historical freight flows into the region and contributing to some nationwide disruption of capacity flow.
Considerations and best practices for hurricane season While a more active hurricane season does not mean that the landfall and disruption experience will be like the examples offered, it does afford the opportunity to consider today's already tense market compared to years.
Displayed by the red line, has the greatest ongoing tension. When tension is high and a large regional or national disruptive event occurs, the tension is exacerbated. Another example, DOT's Roadcheck week, a three-day event, this year it was held a month earlier. Held in MayLTRs peaked at nearlyexceeding even 's levels. More intense storms have a lingering impact on volumes Storms like Michael and Harvey both experienced increased inbound and decreased outbound orders.
Carriers tend to keep drivers away from areas with weather issues—for both the safety of the driver and the equipment. Even with volume decreasing, capacity into and out of the region dropped so much that pricing increased meaningfully. During the volume lull and surge, cost increases are almost a certainty While the intensity of the storm is a factor of this increase, costs tend to have a greater impact on larger economic markets.
Each hurricane event has a unique impact on supply chains. When planning and monitoring an impending landfall, consider the following:. Finally, remember to be flexible. As every hurricane is unique, and this season overlaps with an exceptionally unique and tight truckload market, be prepared for the unexpected—road closures, power outages, bad weather, capacity stresses across surface transportation modes, and pricing pressure to name a few. The overall freight environment is strong against a freight capacity market that is largely stagnant or smaller in than pre-COVID More specific to truckload's volume forecast, Freight Transportation Research FTR reports an amended forecast for For the dry van segment specifically, FTR forecasts 8.
Retail is a key industry to truckload volumes as inventory to sales ratio continues at below historical levels. Strong imports and inventory replenishment activities will mean higher demand than historical levels of van and intermodal capacity for the rest of Market analysts continue to focus more on the trucking labor environment. And trucking labor is struggling. Ongoing semiconductor shortage continues The ongoing semiconductor industry shortage makes forecasting the production of Class 8 tractors challenging.
We anticipate that higher-value products like heavy-duty tractors are likely to be prioritized over medium-duty trucks, and we hear OEMs have made agile engineering pivots to use fewer chips per vehicle. If this forecast is realized, the carrier community must still Seeking ltr in Houston Texas region drivers for these incremental vehicles. Trucking labor is down from pre-pandemic levels A portfolio of self-employment and payroll data suggests trucking jobs in the United States are down by 30, from pre-COVID levels.
Short-haul employment is performing better than long haul. Currently, long-haul trucking is struggling the most and largely carrying the employment gap. Supply and demand conclusion Not much has changed in the recent months. The truckload spot market continues to be exceptionally tense at a nationwide average and demonstrates low elasticity when a ificant disruptive event is imposed regionally or nationally.
The map below offers a regional perspective of the great diversity in tension for the truckload dry van market. Building on the understanding that each market has its base level LTR tension, this month's map offers an additional insight. Areas south of the blue line are experiencing greater spot market tension than regions to the north of the line.
This trend remains strong and is forecasted to last until the end of Especially amidst a truckload capacity shortage of roughly 30, trucking jobs. As Q3 progresses, produce season will migrate North with the growing season, causing some shifts in current market tension.
As most fresh produce requires refrigeration, produce harvest season will cause demand to rise for refrigerated capacity, so these assets will once again prioritize refrigerated lo over dry van shipments. When planning for Q3, also remember the yellow markets are still under meaningful tension since a LTR is considered reasonably out of balance. Spot market truckload rate per mile forecast C. Ongoing monitoring of market fundamentals—including the economy—will lead to an updated forecast later in Q3.
The contract market is managed in shipper, carrier, and broker transportation management systems TMSand not publicly available from spot market trading platforms, therefore, it is difficult to track its performance. The chart above from TMC, a division of C. A decrease in RGD means there are fewer rejections of tenders to the primary supplier measured by first tender acceptance FTA and presented as a percentage of tenders accepted by the primary supplierwhich in turn means fewer subsequent tender rejections to backup suppliers. Seeking ltr in Houston Texas region guide performance Waterfall route guides are commonly used to manage awarded freight on lanes with some level of demand pattern predictability.
The following insights are derived from C. RGD refers to how far into a route guide a shipper must tender shipments before lo are accepted, or the average of tenders per load. FTA is a percentage of how often the awarded primary transportation provider accepts shipment tenders. During the week of July 12,the overall RGD across all regions was 1.
The improvement of the RGD suggests some increased elasticity in the truckload market as backup transportation providers accept tenders more Seeking ltr in Houston Texas region. A regional view of RGD shows some stabilization of 1.
The West continues to perform well at 1. Forthe middle distance lo of — miles and lo over miles have bounced around at 1. May resulted in the middle mile segment rising to 1. For perspective:. Voice of the carrier from C. Robinson Every month we conduct business reviews with contract carriers. Here are some of the comments that are informative of the current market:. Ocean import demand from Asia to North America via the Pacific and Atlantic continues at historically high levels and is forecasted to be so through Q3 and possibly Q4.
Rail and truck networks at all ports are stretched. The East feels additional stress as it works through the backlog of full and empty container volumes following the Suez Canal reopening. Air freight imports to North America have relaxed a bit, but "pull forward" bookings are now occurring to beat pd fall retail inventory build efforts. These forthcoming early bookings will bring some additional demand to U. For a more holistic update on ocean and air in global trade lanes, please see our Global Forwarding Insights. Rain impacted harvesting in North and South Carolina, resulting in a delay of demand.
A material surge with the opposite situation of droughts in the West and parts of the Midwest is slowing produce demand. Work with your C. Robinson representative for ideas that are aligned with your business and the market. Available capacity, however, is meaningfully less than pre-COVID as drivers are migrating to dry van equipment due to rising wages and less demanding work.
This will result in better outcomes than simply planning for longer lead times while remaining inflexible about appointments. Port of Vancouver rail service has d According to the Port of Vancouver, rail services on the Canadian Pacific rail line affected by the British Columbia interior wildfires d July 13, Both Canadian Pacific and Canadian National trains are sharing the line through affected areas. These restrictions limit speeds and require fire mitigation measures. There has been speculation the Lytton, BC, fire was caused by a train.
Overall the intra-Canadian and cross-border truck markets are reasonably balanced and healthy. Quite a different experience than intra-U. S and cross border Mexico-U.Seeking ltr in Houston Texas region
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